You know the saying, ‘3 steps forward, 2 steps back’? Maybe that’s what the entire world energy scene is all about…. As more people come to the table at an accelerated pace.
Shortlink here… http://wp.me/pfF9G-cxN
We have 3-4 billion in a rush to get energy (China, Africa, India, SE Asia & less so South America), while a billion or so already have it (USA, Canada, a decent part of Europe, South Korea, select Middle Eastern countries, and up until the Tsunami, Japan). The latter fell into the trap of needing to refurbish legacy plants (coal & nuclear) while bringing on national gas (NG) and renewable energy (RE). While the former are building whatever they can, maybe at a 10 to 1 ratio (fossils/nuclear/large hydro to REs).
Given this recent ‘change of heart’ with French Nuclear and the similar reality in Germany with Coal, maybe we are looking at a 20 year time frame, where we are currently in the middle of this first transitional phase? Can we see the 10 to 1 ratio drop to 9 to 1, then 8 to 1, until parity and ultimately the reverse? And at what rate for each shift; over 10 years, then 7, 5, etc? Along these lines is where we will see corresponding drops in global CO2 emissions, followed by a long term reduction in atmospheric CO2.
Note: I choose the 20 year duration for the starting point, based what we have seen happen similarly along governance lines in S. America (dictatorships to transitional governments to those being populous) and its accelerated carryover to Africa, fueled by technological advancements, such as wireless TelCom leapfrogging the hardwire legacies of the developed world. But maybe this is not justifiable given energy delivery will require hard infrastructure (wires or pipelines) for the foreseeable future.
It’s slowly coming, but until REs can meet full reliability concerns beyond the individual or microgrid, i.e., 110% grid capacity, 100% of the time, the struggle between what could be installed versus what is actually installed in the developing world will go in favor of the traditional energy sources for many years to come.
Idk, it’s a thought based on what data reveals to be actually happening globally when put in perspective to the desired wishes of those advocating for an 100% renewable energy future. And in many regards, the actual proportion of new or recently installed global generation capacity appears to be relatively neutral in relation to both politics or climate change concerns, dollars and surface economics continue to drive the reality.
A recent shift in French Nuclear dependence… http://m.csmonitor.com/Environment/Energy-Voices/2014/1020/Au-revoir-nuclear-power-France-eyes-an-energy-shift-of-its-own
Germany’s Brown Coal Conundrum… http://energytransition.de/2014/06/german-coal-conundrum/
The UAE opts for Nuclear ahead of the RE revolution… http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/Country-Profiles/Countries-T-Z/United-Arab-Emirates/
Ethiopia doubles down on large hydro… http://www.internationalrivers.org/campaigns/ethiopia-s-dam-boom